real estate/ housing Case-Shiller Index.not the full picture

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Posted on 30th December 2010 by Anthony in Case-Shiller Index | Industry News

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Case-Shiller October 2010

The Case-Shiller Index posted awful numbers in its most recent reading. Each of the index’s 20 tracked markets showed home price deterioration between September’s and October’s respective reports. Some markets fell as much as 2.9 percent.

The drop in values is nothing about which to panic, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what we already knew. It’s a common theme with the Index, actually; a trait traced to the report’s methodology.

The  Index is an imperfect housing indicator with 3 inherent flaws.

The first flaw is that the index makes use of a limited data set, tracking values in just 20 cities nationwide. That data set is then projected across the more than 3,100 other municipalities in the United States. The “national figures”, therefore, aren’t really national.

The second flaw is that, even within the tracked 20 cities, not all home sales are included. The Case-Shiller Index only tracks sales of single-family, detached homes, and within that market subset, it only uses homes that are “repeat sales”. This specifically excludes sales of condominiums and multi-family homes, and new construction.

Lastly, the Index’s third flaw is its “age”. The Case-Shiller Index reports on a 60-day delay, and the values it reports are tied to contracts written even longer ago.  Sales contracts from July and August are responsible for October’s closings so when we see the Case-Shiller Index as reported in December, some of the data it’s reporting is 5 months old already. That’s too old to be relevant.

Looking back at 2010, housing was at its weakest between May and August. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the most recent Case-Shiller Index shows significant weakness.  Looking forward, we should expect the report to improve — especially because of how strong New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales have been since summer.

The  Index is helpful for economists and policy-makers. It’s not much good for individual homeowners, however. For accurate, real-time housing data, talk to a real estate professional instead. Prudential One Realty operates in Phoenix Arizona, Maricopa Arizona, Casa Grande Arizona, Chandler arizona, Queen Creek Arizona, Gilbert Arizona, and Ahwatukee Arizona.  For more information about Arizona real estate please visit www.pru1re.com. Jobs in Arizona are increasing, and there is still very affordable housing.  Even Bristol Palin bought a home in the city of Maricopa! Canadians are coming to arizona in record numbers

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Real Estate Housing And Mortgage Predictions For 2011

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Posted on 29th December 2010 by Anthony in Industry News

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Predicting mortgage and housingWith 2010 coming to a close, the “experts” are out in full force, making predictions for next year’s housing( real estate) and mortgage markets on business television and in the papers.

Predictions for 2011 are wide-ranging:

The problem with residential real estate and mortgage predictions is that — like all predictions — they’re just educated guesses about the future. Nobody knows what will really happen with the housing and mortgage markets in 2011. All anyone can do is theorize. As laypersons, though, it can be hard to separate theory from fact.

Television can make that task even more difficult at times.

As an example, when a well-dressed economist goes on CNBC and presents a clear, succinct argument for why home prices will fall on 2011, we’re inclined to believe the analysis and conclusion. After all, the outcome seems plausible outcome given the facts. But then, immediately after, a different economist presents an opposite argument — that home prices will rise in 2011 – and her analysis seems sound, too. This could be the rebound in the real estate market that we have been waiting for here in Arizona.

Even Freddie Mac can’t see the future.

Last year, the government group predicted mortgage rates to 6 percent in 2010. That never happened, of course. Instead, conforming mortgage rates dropped over a 7-month period this year to levels best be described as “historic”.  Freddie Mac couldn’t have been more wrong.

So, what’s a Maricopa homeowner to believe?

About the only thing that’s certain right now is that mortgage rates remain low by historical standards, and that home prices do, too. Also, that both housing and mortgage markets appear to be riding momentum higher into 2011.  This suggests that it will be more expensive to buy and finance a home by the end of 2011.

Until that time, however, predictions are just guesses.

here are some other articles on the real estate and mortgage markets.

Will pricier mortgages kill housing?
Reader comment: Public housing should be short term | NOLA.com
Foreclosures Still Dragging Down Housing, Economy

New Home Sales Rise In November; Hint At Strong Winter 2011

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Posted on 28th December 2010 by Anthony in New Home Sales

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New Home Sales (Nov 2009 - Nov 2010)Like most housing data in November, the most recent New Home Sales report showed sales volume increasing last month, and home supplies falling.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, sales of new, single-family homes increased to 290,000 in November on an annual basis, a figure equal to the New Home Sales 6-month rolling average, and a 6 percent improvement from October.

At the current pace of sales, the national supply of new homes for sale will be exhausted in 8.2 months — a strong 0.6-month improvement from October.

This data is consistent with the most recent Existing Home Sales report. It showed sales volume rising 6 percent, too, and a similarly-strong inventory drop.

For the housing market in Casa Grande , it’s another step in the right direction. Since May’s post-tax credit plunge, home prices have stabilized and a foundation for growth has been built. Home builder confidence data highlights this point.

Also interesting in the November New Home Sales report is the volume breakdown by price point. Less expensive homes powered the market:

  • Homes under $200,000 : 47 percent of all sales
  • Homes between $200,000-$299,999 : 29 percent of all sales
  • Homes between $300,000-$399,999 : 14 percent of all sales

Luxury homes accounted for less than 2 percent of sales last month suggesting that builders count first-time and move-up buyers as their core market. 

As 2010 comes to a close, housing looks poised for a rebound. Sales in all categories are improving, relative to 6 months ago, and the economy is improving. In conjunction with rising mortgage rates, the best time to buy a new home may be now.

Would Your Kitchen Pass A Health Inspection?

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Posted on 27th December 2010 by Anthony in Home How To

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Americans spend a lot of time cooking and eating in their kitchens. What are you doing to keep yours germ- and bacteria-free?

In this two-part, 6-minute video from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll first ride alongside a county health inspector as he visits a home and inspects its kitchen. The tested areas include the refrigerator, the cutting boards, the sponges, the utensils, the ovens, and more. Ultimately, the home “passes”, but not before the inspector points out some problems from which we all can learn.

Then, in the video’s second part, you’ll learn how to keep your own kitchen clean and healthy.

  • How much bleach to dilute to clean sinks, and how often to clean them
  • Why “time-to-evaporate” is an important metric when shopping for disinfectants
  • Comparing wood vs. glass vs. plastic cutting boards, and how to sanitize them, respectively

Keeping a germ-free kitchen requires constant attention and a routine cleaning schedule. Thankfully, it’s a simple process. Follow the basic steps as outlined by The Today Show, and your home would pass inspection.

Home Inventory Dwindles Into The New Year

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Posted on 23rd December 2010 by Anthony in Existing Home Sales

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Existing Home Supply (Nov 2009 - Nov 2010)Existing Home Sales jumped another 6 percent in November, the report’s third month of improvement since bottoming in July.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, a quarter-million more existing homes were sold during the annual period ending in November as compared to October.  An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction.

Additionally, the national housing supply dropped by a full month. At the current pace of existing home sales, the complete stock of homes for sale will be exhausted in 9.5 months.

November’s strong housing data is yet another signal to buyers in Queen Creek that the housing market’s foundation has been rebuilt, and that a rebound is imminent.  It’s helped that there are great “deals” on which for buyers to pounce.

In November, short sales and foreclosures accounted for one-third of all existing homes sold, and carried an average price discount of 10 percent and 15 percent, respectively, as compared to non-distressed sales.

Repeat buyers continue to power the market, too, representing more than half of all home buyers.

  • First-time buyers : 32% of all buyers
  • Investors : 19% of all buyers
  • Repeat buyers : 51% of all buyers

This breakdown suggests that housing has regained its footing. First-time buyers can’t support a market long-term like repeat buyers can and, as compared to 12 months ago, the percentage of repeat buyers is now up 14 points.

Home buyers take note. Raw sales volume is rising and available inventory is dropping. Basic supply-and-demand tells us that this will lead home prices higher. Furthermore, mortgage rates are rising quickly, increasing the cost of homeownership.

If buying a home is a part of your plan for 2011, consider accelerating your purchase time frame. Existing homes account for more than 80% of homes sold nationwide. If the market keeps improving like this, your home affordability will worsen.

Housing Starts Rise In November, But With A High Margin Of Error

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Posted on 22nd December 2010 by Anthony in Industry News

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Housing Starts Dec 2008-October 2010The number of single-family Housing Starts increased in November, adding 30,000 units as compared to October.

The Census Bureau defines a “housing start” as a home on which construction has started.

November’s starts represents a 7 percent increase from the month prior. However, if you see the Housing Starts story online or in the papers, you’ll notice that the press is calling the market gain at 4 percent.

So which result is right? The answer is both.

The government’s monthly Housing Starts data is published as a composite report; lumping activity among 3 separate housing types into a single, group reading.

The 3 housing types are:

  1. Single-family homes (i.e. 1-unit)
  2. Multi-unit homes (i.e. 2-4 units)
  3. Apartments (5 units or more)

The group reading is a fair description of the market and it’s easy-to-understand. As a result, it’s what the press tends to report. However, for home buyers in Arizona , it’s the single-family category that’s most relevant.

The reason why single-family homes accounted for 84% of November’s Housing Starts is because that’s the type of home that most buyers buy. Few purchase 2-4 unit properties, and even fewer buy entire apartment complexes.

That said, it’s possible that November’s Housing Starts data is wrong. Within the press release, the government placed an asterisk next to the data, indicating that the figure’s margin of error exceeds its actual measurement.

Against a 7 percent gain, the reported margin of error is 13.5%. There is no statistical evidence, therefore, to prove the actual change was different from zero.

If Housing Starts did fall in November, it will help to reduce the Casa Grande housing inventory, which will, in turn, help keep home prices high. For home sellers, this could mean good news. Fewer homes for sale increase competition among buyers.

Foreclosure Activity Plunges (But With An Asterisk)

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Posted on 21st December 2010 by Anthony in foreclosures

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Foreclosures per household, November 2010

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, the foreclosure filings fell 21 percent in November to 262,339 units nationwide. A foreclosure filing is defined as default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession. 

November marked the first time since February 2009 that the number of monthly filings failed to surpass 300,000 units.

There were other notable November statistics, too, included:

  • November’s 21 percent month-to-month decrease was the largest in RealtyTrac’s recorded history
  • November’s 14 percent year-to-year decrease was the largest in RealtyTrac’s recorded history
  • Nevada led the nation in foreclosure activity for the 47th straight month

However, we can’t read into November’s RealtyTrac report too much; ultimately, history may treat it with an asterisk. Controversy surrounding the so-called robo-signers forced some of the biggest banks to institute a temporary halt to foreclosures in November. Foreclosure activity did fall last month, but the moratorium makes the figures look better for housing than if there had been no interference.

The halt in foreclosures is also why Utah leaped into the #2 state for foreclosures nationwide. Perennial foreclosure-leading states like California, Michigan and Arizona posted double-digit improvements in November whereas Utah did not.

Banks have since resumed foreclosure activity so December’s results may be a better gauge for how the market is truly performing.

Foreclosures tend to be sold at discount and low home prices can entice home buyers to make an offer. If you’re such a buyer in Maricopa and want to look at foreclosed homes, talk to a real estate agent first.  Maricopa Arizona has some great deals on foreclosed homes, to view a complete inventory of foreclosed homes visit www.pru1re.com .

Although there’s a host of online search engines that specialize in foreclosures, a licensed agent may have access to broader inventory, plus the ability to negotiate it more effectively.  Prudential One Realty in Maricopa and Casa Grande Arizona are local agents with local Arizona real estate knowledge.

For more information about Prudential One Realty or our foreclosure services, please visit www.pru1re.com or call 520-413-2070 for Maricopa and 520-836-1001 for Casa Grande.

First time home buyers face the opportunity of a lifetime!

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Posted on 14th December 2010 by Anthony in Industry News

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By Anthony Kamouzis

Prudential One Realty

Today’s first-time homebuyers are presented with the opportunity of a lifetime. Mortgage rates in early December stood near lows last seen during the Truman administration while home prices were well off their peaks of previous years. The combination made housing affordability, as measured by the National Association of REALTORS®, the highest since NAR® launched its Affordability Index in 1973.

Housing inventory is also abundant in many markets, enabling first-timers to secure good homes and pave the way to their financial futures. Indeed, homes and their long-term virtues of shelter, wealth-building and personal and civic pride are available at bargain-basement prices that won’t, or can’t, last.

Naturally, first-timers have many questions about home buying, starting with costs. With research and the services of a licensed real estate professional, these consumers can demystify the process and place themselves on the fast track to homeownership.

Knowledge is power – Nine out of every 10 home searches today begin on the Internet. With just a few mouse clicks, you can peruse neighborhoods, search countless online listings and take virtual tours packed with detailed photographs. The process gives you working knowledge of home availability and pricing in your local markets so by the time you sit down with your real estate sales professional you’re well on your way.

Also visit informative websites such as www.ginniemae.gov, www.realtor.com and prudential.com, and check the local newspaper for homebuyer seminars.  

Affordability – Costs involved in the purchase of a home – mortgage, down payment and closing expenditures – can be overwhelming to first-time homebuyers. By looking at your income and debt ratio, your real estate professional can help you calculate how much you can afford each month in mortgage payments. But before determining your price range, you should also take into consideration other factors that will affect your monthly budget once you are a homeowner, such as property taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance. And if your down payment is less than 20 percent of the cost of the home, you will be responsible for private mortgage insurance.

Mortgage payment – In today’s buyers market, you may face competition for your dream home. To establish your spending limit and gain the ability to move quickly on a home, get pre-approved for a loan before you start looking. The fact that your loan has already been approved is of great value to the seller because it shortens the purchase process, and there is less of a chance that the buyer will back out of the sale. This process will also help you identify any credit challenges you must address prior to your purchase.

If you don’t have a specific mortgage lender in mind, ask your sales professional for a recommendation.

Down payment – The down payment amount varies depending on the value of the home you choose and your mortgage lender. First-time homebuyers may also qualify for down-payment assistance programs and grants available through their states and municipalities. Contact your state housing finance authority, county housing and community development office for an application.

Closing costs must be factored in as well. These include origination fees charged by the lender, title and settlement fees, taxes and prepaid items such as homeowners insurance or homeowner association fees. All told, buyers should spend no more than 28% of their income on housing costs, according to Fannie Mae. Your real estate professional will be able to explain your options.

Making offers – Make sure you visit several different homes to get a feel for the marketplace. Visit the ones you like again to see things you might have missed. Work with your real estate professional to get all of your questions answered before making an offer. And remember there are no silly questions. Make sure you understand and are comfortable with every aspect of the transaction.

Indeed, home ownership remains a sound financial decision for most and a key component of long-term financial planning. First-time buyers who seek homes for all the right reasons – a place to raise a family, build for the future and face life’s opportunities and challenges – can secure their dreams and build for their futures at some of the most attractive values in years.

Anthony Kamouzis can be reached at (520) (413-2070). Prudential One Realty ( www.pru1re.com ) is an independently owned and operated member of Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc., a Prudential Financial company. Equal Housing Opportunity.