Posted on 8th July 2011 by Anthony in The Economy
foreclosures, Greece, jobs, Maricopa, Maricopa Arizona, Maricopa AZ, Maricopa real estate, market, pinal county arizona, real estate, Volcano
The year is half-over. It’s an opportune time to take stock of analyst predictions made at the start of the year, and to recognize that the “experts” can be wrong as often as they are right. Maricopa real estate
For as much experience and authority an expert brings to the conversation, though, nobody can accurately predict the future.
As such, there’s often disagreement.
Looking back to December, some housing analysts called for a market rebound this year; while others called for a fall. With respect to mortgages, some said rates had nowhere to go but up; while others expected more dips.
As a layperson, how do you know who will be right?
In short, you can’t.
Predictions are a tricky business because they’re guesses about the future based on the world as it exists today. When the predictions listed earlier were made, the world was a different place.
A lot has changed since January:
- Slowing job growth has suggested to slower U.S. economic growth
- Food and energy costs have spiked, adding inflationary pressures to the economy
- Eurozone debt issues have grown, punctuated by a near-Greek default
- Tsunamis have caused widespread damage in Japan
- Earthquakes, floods and volcanoes have harmed economic output
None of these events had occurred as of December, when the original predictions were made. Yet, each of these developments has made a deep impact on housing, and on the economy.
So, what’s a Casa Grande homeowner to do? Think of the present instead.
First, mortgage rates are low today — extremely low by historical standards. Second, home values have been slow to rebound through most U.S. markets. Combined, these factors have made homes more affordable than it any time in recorded history. It’s not only cheap to buy a home right now, it’s cheap to refinance one, too.
Analysts are saying the home prices will rise this year, and mortgage rates will, too. Those predictions may ultimately be proven true. Until the future arrives, though, those predictions are just guesses. If you are looking for Maricopa real estate please visit www.pru1re.com for more information about the city of Maricopa and the great state of Arizona.
Posted on 7th January 2011 by Anthony in jobs
Arizona, Arizona real estate, arizona real estate listings, Casa Grande, Casa Grande Arizona, casa grande real estate, casa grande real estate listings, Inflation, jobs, Maricopa, Maricopa Arizona, Maricopa real estate, maricopa real estate listings, phoenix, Phoenix Arizona, Queen Creek, real estate, short sale
On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report. The real estate market is directly tied to the job market. The Job market in Arizona has driven real estate growth from Casa Grande to Maricopa, and Ahwatukee to Queen Creek.
More commonly called “the jobs report”, the government’s data include raw employment figures and the Unemployment Rate.
The jobs report hit the wires at 8:30 AM ET today. It’s making big waves in the mortgage market and may help home affordability for buyers in Maricopa and Casa grande this weekend, and would-be refinancers across Arizona. This can only be good news for all real estate transactions across arizona.
For this month, and for the rest of 2011, employment data will figure big in mortgage markets.
7 million jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009. Fewer than one million jobs were recovered in 2010. For the economy to fully recover, analysts believe that jobs growth is paramount. In Arizona the job market seems to be stabilizing, and in some rural communities like Maricopa and Casa Grande jobs have actually increased.
Consider how job creation influences the economy:
- More jobs means more income and more spending
- More spending means more business growth
- More business growth means more job creation
It’s a self-reinforcing cycle and, as business grows, the economy expands, pushing stock markets higher. This tends to lead mortgage rates higher, too, because bonds can lose their appeal when stock markets gain.
According to the government, 103,000 jobs were created in December, and October’s and November’s figures were revised higher by a net 50,000 jobs for a total of 153,000 new jobs created. Economists expected a net gain of 135,000.
The Unemployment rate fell to 9.4, its lowest level since mid-2009.
Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now. Mortgage bonds are improving, pointing to slightly lower mortgage rates today.
The December jobs report was “average”, and home affordability is improving. arizona remains a great desitination state with high home affordability. For more information about Arizona Real estate contact Prudential One Realty at www.pru1re.com. Prudential One Realty serves the Arizona real estate market to include Casa Grande, Maricopa, Gilbert, Queen Creek, and the greater phoenix area.
Posted on 30th December 2010 by Anthony in Case-Shiller Index | Industry News
admin, Arizona, arizona housing, Arizona real estate, Casa Grande, Casa Grande Arizona, Case-Shiller Index, economics, finance, Home Values, homes sale, houses, Housing, housing stats, jobs, Maricopa, Maricopa Arizona, phoenix, Phoenix Arizona, phoenix arizona real estate, real estate
The Case-Shiller Index posted awful numbers in its most recent reading. Each of the index’s 20 tracked markets showed home price deterioration between September’s and October’s respective reports. Some markets fell as much as 2.9 percent.
The drop in values is nothing about which to panic, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what we already knew. It’s a common theme with the Index, actually; a trait traced to the report’s methodology.
The Index is an imperfect housing indicator with 3 inherent flaws.
The first flaw is that the index makes use of a limited data set, tracking values in just 20 cities nationwide. That data set is then projected across the more than 3,100 other municipalities in the United States. The “national figures”, therefore, aren’t really national.
The second flaw is that, even within the tracked 20 cities, not all home sales are included. The Case-Shiller Index only tracks sales of single-family, detached homes, and within that market subset, it only uses homes that are “repeat sales”. This specifically excludes sales of condominiums and multi-family homes, and new construction.
Lastly, the Index’s third flaw is its “age”. The Case-Shiller Index reports on a 60-day delay, and the values it reports are tied to contracts written even longer ago. Sales contracts from July and August are responsible for October’s closings so when we see the Case-Shiller Index as reported in December, some of the data it’s reporting is 5 months old already. That’s too old to be relevant.
Looking back at 2010, housing was at its weakest between May and August. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the most recent Case-Shiller Index shows significant weakness. Looking forward, we should expect the report to improve — especially because of how strong New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales have been since summer.
The Index is helpful for economists and policy-makers. It’s not much good for individual homeowners, however. For accurate, real-time housing data, talk to a real estate professional instead. Prudential One Realty operates in Phoenix Arizona, Maricopa Arizona, Casa Grande Arizona, Chandler arizona, Queen Creek Arizona, Gilbert Arizona, and Ahwatukee Arizona. For more information about Arizona real estate please visit www.pru1re.com. Jobs in Arizona are increasing, and there is still very affordable housing. Even Bristol Palin bought a home in the city of Maricopa! Canadians are coming to arizona in record numbers
arizona real estate, real estate in arizona, phoenix arizona real estate, all real estate in arizona, arizona real estate agent, arizona estate real, mesa arizona real estate, arizona commercial real estate, gilbert arizona real estate
